The blocks of the left (PSOE, Más Madrid and Unidas Podemos) and the right (PP and Vox) in the Community of Madrid would be tied with 68 deputies each in the 4M elections, which would mean half of the seats of the Madrid Assembly for each block, which would make it impossible to form a Government. Citizens will not achieve representation, remaining at a vote estimate of 4.4%, according to the pre-election survey published this Monday by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), prepared between March 19 and 28.
The PP will have a broad victory but insufficient to govern, while Ciudadanos remains out of the Assembly
The current president of the Community of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, will be the most represented force, with 59 seats and 39.2% of the ballots, so it would double the results of; followed by the PSOE, the most voted party in 2019, which will obtain 38 deputies and a 25.3% vote estimate. More Madrid would keep its 20 deputies and Podemos, headed by former vice president Pablo Iglesias, would climb to ten seats, three more, and 8.7% of the votes.
From the responses given to the CIS by those surveyed, it is also deduced that on May 4 only 3.4% of the people from Madrid would abstain, although another 0.7% said they would vote blank. The poll also shows that 20.2% of voters say they do not yet know which party they are going to vote for and that 3.5% will not vote in the next elections in the Community of Madrid.
According to this survey, the current president of the Community of Madrid would have experienced in the last 15 days an increase in voting intention that goes from 39.5% to 42.8%, which translated into an increase of 6-7 seats with respect to the last poll, which gave him 55-56 deputies. The absolute majority is in 69 seats.